1955 · U.S. Senate Committee on Banking and Currency (public domain transcript)
Benjamin Graham — Stock Market Study, U.S. Senate Banking Committee Testimony (1955)
Graham's 1955 testimony before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee's Stock Market Study is the document in which Graham, summoned to Washington to discuss the state of the equity market, gave his most direct assessment of the market's structure and of the regulator's proper role in it. Graham's testimony opens with the observation that the equity market of 1955 had recovered substantially from the troughs of the 1930s and 1940s, and that the market's recovery had been accompanied by an increase in participation by individual investors who had been absent from the market in the immediate postwar years. Graham's instruction to the Committee is that the market's recovery is, on the whole, a healthy development, and that the regulator's proper role is not to constrain the market's general direction but to ensure that the market's participants are operating honestly, with adequate disclosure, and without the manipulative practices that had disfigured the market in earlier eras. Graham's testimony on the question of market forecasting is the document's most instructive passage. Graham tells the Committee that he does not regard market forecasting as a respectable analytical activity, and that the analyst who claims to forecast the market's general direction is, in his view, claiming a knowledge the analyst does not have. Graham's instruction is that the analyst's proper work is to estimate the value of individual securities, not to forecast the market's direction, and that the analyst who confines himself to the former activity will, over a long horizon, do better than the analyst who attempts the latter. Graham's testimony is, in this sense, an early statement of what later generations would call the efficient-market critique of market forecasting: the market's direction is a function of the aggregate expectations of all participants, and the analyst who attempts to forecast the aggregate expectations is attempting to forecast a forecast. Graham's testimony on the question of margin and leverage is the document's other instructive passage. Graham tells the Committee that the use of margin and leverage by individual investors had, in the 1920s, contributed substantially to the severity of the 1929 crash, and that the regulator's proper role in the postwar market was to maintain margin requirements at a level that would prevent the leverage cycle from repeating. Graham's instruction is that the regulator's margin requirements are the structural protection against the leverage cycle, and that the regulator should resist the pressure to lower margin requirements in periods of market enthusiasm. The 1955 testimony is, in this sense, the document in which Graham's views on the market's structure, the regulator's role, and the proper discipline of the analyst are most directly recorded, and it is the document on which subsequent generations of value analysts have drawn for Graham's most direct statements on the market as a system rather than as a collection of individual securities.