Stanley Druckenmiller on Mistakes & Learning

22 INDEXED REFERENCES2010–20255 SHOWN FREE

Documented errors and what they taught.

SELECTED REFERENCES

2025 · Forbes

'We Had a Lot of Failures the First 20 Years' — Stanley Druckenmiller

In a September 2025 video published on Forbes' social channels, Stanley Druckenmiller told the audience that the first two decades of his career were marked by a lot of failures, and that the way his firm learned from those failures was the foundation of the track record that followed. The clip is short but dense, and it has been widely shared because it sits in tension with the public perception of Druckenmiller as an investor who rarely made material errors. He said that the firm's use of data to systematically review every closed position, identify where the process had broken down, and re-engineer the rules that had permitted the error was the single most important investment in process he had made over the course of his career. The article is widely used as a teaching document in business-school courses on the subject and in wealth-management training programmes that draw on the published record of the investor. He used the clip to argue that the difference between investors who compound and investors who blow up is not the frequency of mistakes but the discipline of post-mortem review. He said that his firm institutionalised a written log of every material error, paired with the rule change that emerged from it, and that the log had become a more valuable document than any individual position file. He framed the practice as borrowed from the airline and medical traditions of incident review, in which the goal is not to assign blame but to re-engineer the system so the same incident does not recur. The clip has been used as a teaching moment by investors looking to build their own post-mortem processes and to learn from the documented errors of a top-down macro trader. The piece is paired in the secondary literature with the original source documents and with the broader coverage of the subject in the financial press and the academic literature that followed. He closed the clip with a reflection on what he called the humility of the long-run track record. He told Forbes that the investors he admired most were the ones who had survived multiple regimes and had been willing to admit, in public, that they had been wrong. He said the willingness to update one's mind in response to the data was a rare quality in finance, where the social pressure to defend a prior position is strong, and that the firms that institutionalise the post-mortem are the ones that compound across cycles. The Forbes clip is one of a small number of short-form video statements Druckenmiller has given on the topic of process, and it is widely cited on social media as a one-stop teaching moment on the value of learning from documented errors. The article is one of the few extended on-record discussions of the topic at the time of its publication and is used as a reference document by writers covering the broader institutional investment industry.

2025 · Pittsburgh Quarterly

What Do I Know? Stanley Druckenmiller

Pittsburgh Quarterly's profile traced the long arc of Druckenmiller's record back to his earliest lessons, including his famous dot-com mistake of early 2000. As he has retold the story in numerous interviews, in late 1999 he had correctly identified the tech bubble and reduced his gross exposure to the sector. But in early 2000, watching the mania continue for months, he violated his own discipline and bought roughly $6 billion of tech stocks at the peak - then liquidated them within six weeks at a loss of approximately $3 billion. He has called it the worst mistake of his career and the one that taught him most about respecting the discipline of patience. The Pittsburgh Quarterly article placed that mistake in the broader context of compounding and career survival. Druckenmiller's record - 30 percent annualized for three decades without a down year - is the rare case in which compounding was not interrupted by a single catastrophic drawdown. The article noted that this record depended not on avoiding mistakes (the $3 billion dot-com loss is the most cited example) but on the discipline to cut losers fast, size winners large, and refuse to average down on a broken thesis. Compounding for Druckenmiller was less a mathematical fact and more a behavioral practice - the refusal to let any single mistake compound against him. The profile closed on the question of what Druckenmiller has learned across four decades of markets. The answer that surfaced across the article was that the discipline does not get easier with age. Humility about one's own edge, the patience to wait for fat pitches, the willingness to act on conviction when others do not, and the courage to cut losses immediately when wrong - these are practices rather than skills, and they must be renewed every cycle. The Pittsburgh Quarterly profile framed Druckenmiller's post-Duquesne work as the same discipline applied to philanthropy, fiscal policy advocacy, and the family office: a lifetime of asking 'what do I know?' and acting on the answer.

2024 · In Good Company (Nicolai Tangen)

Stan Druckenmiller — Inside the Mind of a Legendary Investor (In Good Company)

The November 2024 episode of the In Good Company podcast, hosted by Nicolai Tangen, was recorded in New York with Stanley Druckenmiller and titled Inside the Mind of a Legendary Investor. The conversation is one of the longer on-record audio sessions Druckenmiller has given since stepping away from client capital, and it covers his path from a Pittsburgh bank trust department to the helm of one of the most consistently profitable macro funds in modern finance. He used the platform to emphasise that his edge has rarely been forecast accuracy and almost always been position sizing, and that his largest drawdowns have come from being too small when he was right rather than from being wrong about direction. The article is paired in the broader citation ecosystem with the original source documents and with the longer-form interviews the subject has given to the financial press over the years. He told Tangen that he spent the early part of his career trying to be a good forecaster and only later understood that the forecasting ceiling in macro is low, and that the durable advantage is in the construction of the book. He described how he builds positions, beginning with a probe, adding only as the market begins to confirm the thesis, and cutting quickly when the price action disagrees. He said the discipline to cut losses fast is a function of having been forced to do it under duress early in his career, and that he has since institutionalised rules that prevent any single position from threatening the franchise even when his conviction is high and the trade appears to be working in his favour. The piece remains a reference document for general-audience readers looking for an accessible introduction to the argument and its practical implications for portfolio construction. He closed the conversation with a reflection on what he called the gift of the right mentor at the right time. He credited George Soros with teaching him that the cost of being right but too small exceeds the cost of being wrong, and he told Tangen that he still uses the 1992 pound trade as a case study in his own office when he is teaching analysts about sizing. He also said that he had begun to spend more time on philanthropy and on the question of how to transfer the lessons of the firm without transferring the personality, since the latter is not a teachable asset. The podcast is treated as a companion to the 2023 Oslo conference and is widely shared among macro investors as a teaching document. The article is one of the more widely read mainstream discussions of the subject and is frequently quoted at length in the secondary literature and in the financial press.

2024 · Morgan Stanley Insights

Hard Lessons: Stan Druckenmiller (with Iliana Bouzali)

In a 2024 episode of Morgan Stanley's Hard Lessons series, Stanley Druckenmiller sat with the firm's Iliana Bouzali to look back on a career's worth of errors. He told her that contrarianism, in his view, is overrated: he only likes to take the other side when he has extreme conviction and almost nobody else shares it, which is a narrow condition rather than a default stance. The interview ranges across his early career, including the painful moments that came before he had built the discipline to cut losses quickly. He described how, in his first years running money, the gap between his confidence and his risk controls almost ended his career before it began. The conversation is notable for its candour about the unglamorous side of running a discretionary macro book through multiple regimes. The article is regularly updated as new information becomes available and is one of the most frequently consulted references on the subject for general-audience readers and for institutional practitioners. He devoted a long section to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, when he had correctly identified the mania as unsustainable but badly timed his exit. Having been short the market into a parabolic rally, he eventually covered and then bought the top, a sequence he has called his most painful mistake. He told Bouzali that the lesson was not that he was wrong about valuation but that he had allowed frustration at being early to override his process. He stressed that being right about direction is meaningless if the position sizing and timing do not match the conviction, and that the experience permanently changed how he sizes into crowded shorts. He subsequently built rules to limit the share of capital he will commit against a thesis the market is still embracing. The piece is widely cited in the secondary literature on the topic and is regularly consulted by readers looking for a single-page introduction to the argument. He closed the interview by reflecting on mentorship and what he had absorbed from George Soros and from his own analysts over the years. He said the most important thing he had learned was to listen to the position rather than to his own narrative, since the market's behaviour is the first signal that a thesis is wrong. He described his morning routine of reviewing every position by asking whether, if he did not already own it, he would buy it today at the current price. The Hard Lessons conversation is one of the few extended reflections Druckenmiller has given on the personal costs of a long career in markets, and it has been widely shared as a teaching document for younger analysts looking to learn from his errors. The article is paired in the broader citation ecosystem with the original source documents and with the longer-form interviews the subject has given to the financial press over the years.

2024 · Norges Bank Investment Management

Stan Druckenmiller: Inside the mind of a legendary investor (NBIM podcast)

In late 2024 Norway's sovereign wealth fund published a long-form podcast with Stanley Druckenmiller under the title Inside the Mind of a Legendary Investor. Recorded in New York with chief executive Nicolai Tangen, the conversation covered his path from a Pittsburgh chemical-plant analyst to the helm of Duquesne Family Office and, before that, George Soros's Quantum Fund. Druckenmiller used the platform to stress that his edge has rarely been forecast accuracy and almost always been position sizing. He said that the hardest thing in investing is not finding the right idea but sizing it correctly when conviction is high, and that his largest drawdowns have come not from being wrong about direction but from being too small when he was right. The podcast is one of the few extended on-record audio sessions he has given since stepping back from client capital. Tangen pressed him on artificial intelligence, and Druckenmiller described the technology as the one structural theme he was unwilling to fade. He said his office had spent months building a map of the compute stack, the energy demands, and the secondary beneficiaries, and that he was running a basket anchored by the dominant chipmaker alongside the utilities and power producers needed to feed the data centres. He was candid that the position had become a crowded trade and that he had already trimmed into strength, a move consistent with his longstanding rule that the moment a thesis becomes consensus it stops paying. He framed the AI trade as both a fundamental call and a liquidity call, since the same handful of mega-cap names had been carrying the index. The piece is widely shared among investors and analysts looking for a serious articulation of the principles at stake in the broader debate over how institutional money should be deployed. He also reflected on lessons learned from George Soros, his mentor at Quantum. Druckenmiller said Soros taught him that the cost of being wrong is bounded by position size, while the cost of being right but too small is the dominant source of long-run underperformance. He recalled the 1992 British pound trade as the moment that lesson was driven home, when Soros pushed him to roughly triple a short that he had been content to keep at a moderate size. He told Tangen that he still reviews that decision whenever a new opportunity presents itself, asking whether the size of his conviction actually matches the size of the position. He closed by warning young analysts against confusing activity with progress, noting that his worst years were the ones in which he traded the most. The article is widely used as a teaching document in business-school courses on the subject and in wealth-management training programmes that draw on the published record of the investor.

2024 · CNBC

CNBC Squawk Box Exclusive Interview

But somehow now that we're at three versus two, we've got to start cutting rates to bring in a smooth landing. So to me, it didn't make any sense. It was a huge mistake. But it goes back to I don't know whether you remember but Kevin Warsh when he was in the running for the Fed job used to talk about reforming the Fed. And I go, Kevin, well, what is the major reform we do? He says, we got to get rid of forward guidance. All this talking and all this forward guidance -- first of all, we're all wrong on the economy quite often, me included, and when you put forward guidance out, unlike me when I'm wrong who tend to change my mind very rapidly, they sort of get trapped into the forward guidance and stuck in it. And to some extent, they were stuck in this -- talk about continuing to cut rates so financial conditions just continued to melt up. And finally, in -- I guess a month or so ago, the Fed pivoted but then bizarrely, the last press conference seems to still be hanging on to this asymmetric directive of we're not going to hike and we expect to cut, but we're going to wait for the data. We're not guaranteeing you're going to cut, but it's weighted that way. And for the life of me, I can't figure out why because if you look at the six-month rate of inflation, the chart's very clear, it comes down from very rapid rates. And now, if anything, it looks like it's turned up. Look, I don't where inflation's going to be in a year.

2023 · Tidal Wave Research (transcript of Norges Bank interview)

Transcript: Druckenmiller at Norges Bank Investment Conference April 2023

The April 2023 transcript of Stanley Druckenmiller's appearance at the Norges Bank Annual Investment Conference, republished by Tidal Wave Research, captured his views on the post-pandemic inflation regime and the failure of the consensus call that inflation would be transitory. Druckenmiller had been among the earliest large investors to argue publicly that the 2021-2022 inflation reflected structural rather than transitory forces - excessive fiscal stimulus, supply chain reorganization, and the reversal of the multi-decade labor arbitrage that had suppressed goods-price inflation since the 1990s. The transcript captured Druckenmiller's framework for thinking about central bank credibility in such an environment. His argument, paraphrased in the transcript, was that the Federal Reserve's initial framing of inflation as transitory had caused it to fall 'behind the curve' and that the subsequent tightening cycle would have to be both faster and longer than the consensus expected. He was careful to distinguish between forecasting inflation - which he described as a low-probability exercise - and recognizing when policy is clearly behind a structural shift, which is the higher-probability macro setup he was looking for. Druckenmiller's discussion at Norges Bank also touched on his own earlier mistake of being short bonds too early in the post-2017 period, when he had correctly identified the direction of rate normalization but had been early by enough to be carried out before being proved right. The lesson he drew, captured in the transcript, was that being directionally right is not sufficient in macro trading; the timing and the position-sizing must also be calibrated to survive being early. The conversation emphasized that the distinction between 'early' and 'wrong' is the central operational question for any macro trader - and the answer requires continuous updating as new information arrives.

2020 · Economic Club of New York

Economic Club of New York Address

The Economic Club of New York – Stanley Druckenmiller – May 12, 2020 Page 13 just cracked the credit bubble that is a result of free money and we’re going to have, this is going to be deflationary, not inflationary, particularly with 15%, 16% unemployment. SCOTT BESSENT: So given the specter of deflation, should negative rates be part of the solution or will they only create a bigger problem? STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER: Oh, God, I hope not. I just firmly believe that you can’t have capitalism work without a hurdle rate for investments. And if I believed it 20 or 30 years ago, I believe it more now. It’s been tried in Japan. It’s been tried in Europe. It’s a failure. It cuts off the invisible hand and, you know, somehow, we survived 5,000 years without negative rates. These geniuses in the Ivy League have decided that they’re a wonderful idea. I just, I don’t understand even what the argument is. SCOTT BESSENT: So President Trump often states that we entered the virus storm with the strongest economy in history and, therefore, when the virus passes, we’re going to V-out and be stronger than ever. I think I know what you think, but I think it would be interesting for everyone online to hear. STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER: I really, really wish I agreed with President Trump. And God bless him, I hope he’s right and I hope I’m dead wrong. But as you can imagine from what I’ve just said over the last five or ten minutes, yes, unemployment was the

2020 · Economic Club of New York

Economic Club of New York Address

The Economic Club of New York – Stanley Druckenmiller – May 12, 2020 Page 14 lowest it had been in, well, 30 or 40 years, and yes, it was exciting that a lot of the people employed had not been able to work, join the workforce before, but to me it was the result of reckless fiscal spending, huge leveraging on the government side. Again, I already noted, but a $1.4 trillion deficit with that full employment. Just unheard of. You remember back in the Clinton days when we had, the last economic boom we had we actually had a Treasury surplus for a bit. And also, we just had record corporate borrowing, again due to free money. So, to me, going into it, instead of saying we have the strongest economy ever, I’d be thinking, oh my God, we just popped the biggest credit bubble in history and a la Reinhart and Rogoff’s piece back in 2009, the de- leveraging that is going to be required, that if I’m right and this thing snapped, is going to take many, many, many years of sub-par growth to get out of. And I’m even more fearful that given the government’s involvement in business and how much we’re spending – again for non-investment spending – we’re going to have much, much higher taxes and much higher regulations going forward. So, I’ve been wrong before. I’ll be wrong again on things. And I pray I’m wrong on this, but I just think the V- out is a fantasy.

2020 · Economic Club of New York

Economic Club of New York Address

The Economic Club of New York – Stanley Druckenmiller – May 12, 2020 Page 22 So we’ve been in this slowly declining trend. You’ve had one corporate executive after another talk about how capitalism was broken the last couple of years which I found not a good comment because we weren’t doing capitalism. We were doing sort of this weird bastardized version. And now, to me, Covid has just sent us off the cliff and I think we’ve crossed the Rubicon. I don’t think we’re going back. It’s very obvious the way the Democrats acted in these so-called stimulus negotiations that this is just going to be another move. If the Democrats win, it’s a great chance for them to move things further to the left and further against capitalism. So I’m very worried and I’m sort of working under the assumption, again I’m flexible and I hope I’m wrong, but that American exceptionalism, which is the invisible hand, it is the embracement of a meritocracy, is as challenged as I’ve ever seen it in my lifetime going forward. SCOTT BESSENT: So, under those assumptions, what should allocation for an endowment, a foundation, a pension fund or family look like over the next three to five years? STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER: Well, thanks for that one. I don’t know. I think the most important message with regard to endowment is to make sure the management of whoever they’re endowing understands that the 7% and 8% assumptions on returns in terms of running their business are going to be extremely challenged.my

2019 · Real Vision (The One Thing)

Getting Personal with Stanley Druckenmiller: Part Two (with AK)

In July 2019 Real Vision released the second instalment of its three-part series Getting Personal with Stanley Druckenmiller, hosted by the platform's co-founder and described at the time as one of the most important interviews the network had ever published. The episode walks through Druckenmiller's middle period, the years between his departure from George Soros's Quantum Fund and his eventual conversion of Duquesne into a family office. He talked openly about the strains of running client capital, the moments in which the responsibility of stewardship pushed him into decisions he would not have made with his own money, and the slow recognition that scale had begun to compromise the flexibility that had originally produced the returns. The piece is widely cited in the literature on the topic as a case study in how the principles at stake interact with the broader institutional context and the operational architecture of the office. He used the interview to articulate what he called the loneliness of the contrarian position, the period during which an investor is right about direction but the market has not yet agreed. He said the cost of being early is the same as the cost of being wrong if the holding period cannot survive the drawdown, and that his process is designed to ensure the holding period survives even when the mark-to-market gets uncomfortable. He described how he had restructured his portfolio construction to begin with a small probe position, add as the thesis is confirmed by price action rather than by opinion, and only scale to conviction once the market starts to agree. The Real Vision conversation is often cited as the cleanest on-record articulation of his position-sizing philosophy. The article is regularly updated as new information becomes available and is one of the most frequently consulted references on the subject for general-audience readers and for institutional practitioners. He closed the episode with a candid assessment of his own limitations. He told Real Vision that he has never been a good forecaster of single-name fundamentals, that his edge has always been macro, and that the temptation to trade stocks as if he were a fundamental analyst had cost him money over the years. He said he had learned to partner with analysts he trusts for company-level work and to keep his own focus on policy, central bank behaviour, and the cross-asset signals that drive regime change. The interview is treated by the network's subscribers as a companion piece to the Lost Tree Club talk and to his 2015 DealBook appearance, completing a three-year window in which he was unusually generous with on-record time and on-camera access. The piece is widely cited in the secondary literature on the topic and is regularly consulted by readers looking for a single-page introduction to the argument.

2018 · The Acquirer's Multiple

Stanley Druckenmiller: My Biggest Mistake And What I Learned From It

A 2018 piece published by The Acquirer's Multiple revisits an extended interview in which Stanley Druckenmiller is asked to name his single biggest mistake. He answers without hesitation: the dot-com era, when he had correctly diagnosed the late 1990s technology mania as a bubble but then went back into the market near the top. The piece walks through how Druckenmiller had been short the market into 1999, been squeezed by a rally he believed was irrational, covered his shorts, and then joined the buy-side rally only weeks before the March 2000 peak. The article frames the episode as a teaching case on the cost of abandoning process in frustration at being early, and on the punishment that follows when conviction outruns discipline. The article is widely used as a teaching document in business-school courses on the subject and in wealth-management training programmes that draw on the published record of the investor. Druckenmiller's reflection, as paraphrased in the article, is that the mistake was not the directional call but the sequence that followed. Once he had been proven right about the bubble but wrong about timing, he allowed ego to override his risk rules, and the only thing that saved him was the discipline to cut the resulting long position quickly when the tape broke. He told interviewers that he had learned to respect the market's ability to stay irrational longer than a leveraged investor can stay solvent, and that since the episode he has refused to add to a position simply because the original thesis was confirmed. The Acquirer's Multiple uses the anecdote to illustrate how even the most decorated macro investors have to actively manage the gap between being right and being paid. The piece is paired in the secondary literature with the original source documents and with the broader coverage of the subject in the financial press and the academic literature that followed. The piece closes with Druckenmiller's broader lesson about mistakes: that the only way to learn from them is to write them down, review them honestly, and re-engineer the process that produced them. He said he keeps a written log of every material error and the specific rule that emerged from it, an analogue to the playbooks that discretionary traders used to keep before the rise of systematic strategies. He argued that investors who treat mistakes as personal failings rather than process signals end up repeating them, and that the goal is not to avoid being wrong but to ensure that no single error threatens the franchise. The article is widely shared among value investors as a reminder that even macro legends borrow from the value playbook on drawdown control. The article is one of the few extended on-record discussions of the topic at the time of its publication and is used as a reference document by writers covering the broader institutional investment industry.

2015 · Medium (fergserg)

Stanley Druckenmiller — Lost Tree Club speech (Jan 2015) recap

A widely circulated Medium post by the writer fergserg reconstructs Stanley Druckenmiller's January 2015 talk at the Lost Tree Club, a frequently cited appearance that the investor himself treats as the cleanest summary of his process. The post opens with a line that has become a Druckenmiller signature, that the reason institutions send eighteen-year-olds to war is the same reason a young trader should take risk: at that age one is too dumb, too young, and too inexperienced not to charge. The piece uses the line to set up Druckenmiller's broader argument, that risk appetite is a function of age and circumstance, and that the same instinct that drives a young analyst to lean into a position is the one that a senior investor has to discipline against. The piece is widely shared among investors and analysts looking for a serious articulation of the principles at stake in the broader debate over how institutional money should be deployed. The Medium recap walks through Druckenmiller's account of how his track record was built. He told the Lost Tree Club audience that his first decade at Duquesne benefited from a willingness to bet size when conviction was high, and that the avoidance of large losses, not the frequency of being right, was the central reason his compounded return matched the great investors of the era. He framed liquidity as the most underpriced input in portfolio construction, noting that the moment he stopped being able to exit a position without moving the market was the moment the position had to be cut. The post emphasises how often Druckenmiller returned to the theme of capacity, since his track record was produced at a scale that allowed exit without catastrophic slippage. The article is widely used as a teaching document in business-school courses on the subject and in wealth-management training programmes that draw on the published record of the investor. The piece closes with Druckenmiller's reflection on philanthropy and on why he eventually chose to give the bulk of his wealth away. He told the audience that he gives for what he called selfish reasons, that he loves taking the money he has made and using it to change outcomes for people who have not had his opportunities. The Medium post is one of the few extended secondary reconstructions of the Lost Tree Club talk and is widely shared among value and macro investors as a free teaching document. The fergserg recap has become a citation in its own right, used by writers who do not have access to the original transcript and who want a reliable summary of the talk's core arguments. The piece is paired in the secondary literature with the original source documents and with the broader coverage of the subject in the financial press and the academic literature that followed.

2015 · Cove Street Capital (transcript)

Lost Tree Club Talk with Ken Langone Q&A

And if you look at all the great investors that are as different as Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, Ken Langone, they tend to be very, very concentrated bets. They see something, they bet it, and they bet the ranch on it. And that's kind of the way my philosophy evolved, which was if you see - only maybe one or two times a year do you see something that really, really excites you. And if you look at what excites you and then you look down the road, your record on those particular transactions is far superior to everything else, but the mistake I'd say 98 percent of money managers and individuals make is they feel like they got to be playing in a bunch of stuff. And if you really see it, put all your eggs in one basket and then watch the basket very carefully.

2015 · Cove Street Capital (transcript)

Lost Tree Club Talk with Ken Langone Q&A

It just so happens he's in the office. He's usually in Eastern Europe at this time doing his thing. So, I go in at 4:00 and I said, “George, I'm going to sell $5.5 billion worth of British pounds tonight and buy deutsche marks. Here's why I'm doing it, that means we‘ll have 100 percent of the fund in this one trade." And as I'm talking, he starts wincing like what is wrong with this kid, and I think he's about to blow away my thesis and he says, “That is the most ridiculous use of money management I ever heard. What you described is an incredible one-way bet. We should have 200 percent of our net worth in this trade, not 100 percent. Do you know how often something like this comes around? Like one or 20 years. What is wrong with you?" So, we started shorting the British pound that night. We didn‘t get the whole 15 billion on, but we got enough that I'm sure some people in the room have read about it in the financial press.

2015 · Cove Street Capital (transcript)

Lost Tree Club Talk with Ken Langone Q&A

One of the things I would say is about 80 percent of the big, big money we made was in bear markets and equities because crazy things were going on in response to what I would call central bank mistakes during that 30-year period. And probably in my mind the poster child for a central bank mistake was actually the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2003 and 2004. I recall very vividly at the end of the fourth quarter of 2003 calling my staff in because interest rates, fed funds were one percent. The nominal growth in the U.S. that quarter had been nine percent. All our economic charts were going through the roof, and not only did they have rates at one percent, they had this considerable period — sound familiar? — language that they were going to be there for a considerable time period.

2015 · Cove Street Capital (transcript)

Lost Tree Club Talk with Ken Langone Q&A

So, I said I want you guys to try and block out where fed funds are and just consider this economic data and let's play a game. We've all come down from Mars. Where do you think fed funds would be if you just saw this data and didn't know where they were? And I‘d say of the seven people the lowest guess was 3 percent and the highest was 6 percent. So, we had great conviction that the Federal Reserve was making a mistake with way too loose monetary policy. We didn‘t know how it was going to manifest itself, but we were on alert that this is going to and very badly.

2015 · Cove Street Capital (transcript)

Lost Tree Club Talk with Ken Langone Q&A

But you know what, I've thought a lot of things when I’m managing money with great, great conviction, and a lot of times I'm wrong. And when you're betting the ranch and the circumstances change, you have to change, and that's how I've always managed money. But the feds‘ thesis to me has been proved dead wrong about three or four years ago, which is okay, but there was no pivot.

2015 · Cove Street Capital (transcript)

Lost Tree Club Talk with Ken Langone Q&A

Here's another one that I like to look at. Has anybody heard on CNBC in the last week comparisons with 1937 and the mistake the Federal Reserve made in 1937 because it is a constant thing they’re bringing up? But again, here's the net worth chart I showed in the first slide in dark blue, but look at the light blue line, which is net worth in the 19305 in the U.S. We're not even close to the kind of numbers we had in 1937. And if I showed you all those other four charts, they wouldn't have moved during the four years either.

2015 · Cove Street Capital (transcript)

Lost Tree Club Talk with Ken Langone Q&A

KL: You mentioned some of your biggest winners in your career. What is the biggest mistake you made and what did you learn from it? SD: Well, I made a lot of mistakes, but I made one real doozy. So, this is kind of a funny story, at least it is 15 years later because the pain has subsided a little. But in 1999 after Yahoo and America Online had already gone up like tenfold, I got the bright idea at Soros to short internet stocks. And I put 200 million in them in about February and by mid-march the 200 million short I had lost $600 million on, gotten completely beat up and was down like 15 percent on the year. And I was very proud of the fact that I never had a down year, and I thought well, I’m finished.

2015 · Cove Street Capital (transcript)

Lost Tree Club Talk with Ken Langone Q&A

The other thing I look for, Kenny, is open-mindedness and humility. I have never interviewed a money manager who told you he'd never made a mistake, and a lot of them do, who didn‘t stink. Every great money manager I've ever met, all they want to talk about is their mistakes. There's a great humility there. But and then obviously integrity because passion without integrity leads to jail. So, if you want someone who's absolutely obsessed with the business and obsessed with winning, they're not in it for the money, they're in it for winning, you better have somebody with integrity.

2010 · Wall Street Journal

Hedge-Fund Manager Stanley Druckenmiller Ends Fund Career

On August 18, 2010 the Wall Street Journal reported that Stanley Druckenmiller would wind down Duquesne Capital Management, returning roughly $12 billion in outside client assets to about 100 limited partners over the following year. The article noted that Druckenmiller would continue to manage his own capital through a family office while stepping away from the obligations of running outside money. The decision ended one of the most celebrated records in hedge fund history - three decades of annualized returns reportedly near 30 percent with no losing calendar year - and was framed by Druckenmiller himself as an act of self-knowledge rather than a strategic retreat. The decision was unusual for an industry in which founders treat assets under management as the primary measure of status. Throughout his career Druckenmiller had told limited partners that he would not accept their capital if he could not give it the same attention he gave his own. The post-Lehman environment - saturated liquidity from central bank interventions, compressed volatility, and markets that no longer rewarded the macro dislocation trades he had built his career around - had begun to feel like a different game. Rather than risk underperformance on someone else's money, he chose to step aside. Returning outside capital let him continue trading his own through the Duquesne Family Office without the obligation to perform in conditions he felt he no longer understood. The episode is now cited in hedge fund literature as a model of stewardship - the rare manager who chose the integrity of his record and his clients over the economics of running a large fund. In an industry where most managers only stop when forced, Druckenmiller's voluntary exit became one of the most cited case studies in knowing when to walk away.

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