David Einhorn on Margin of Safety

Decision — Presented fracking shorts at Sohn (Pioneer PT $78 vs $167). Context: Fortune/FT/Reuters same-day coverage; “mother fracker” critique. Outcome (known): Bet paid off (CNBC follow-up Apr 2016); GM-short claim remains unattributed.

Decision — Proposed Apple “iPrefs”; sued over bundled vote. Context: SDNY preliminary injunction Feb 22, 2013 (Judge Sullivan). Outcome (known): Apple withdrew Proposal 2; Cook’s “silly sideshow” retort documented.

Decision — Shorted Lehman Brothers. Context: Best-documented crisis short: Nov 2007 VIC talk (Lehman exhibit) + May 2008 Sohn deck. Outcome (known): Lehman bankrupt Sep 15, 2008 — the pitch vindicated.

Decision — Shorted Allied Capital; ran a public forensic campaign; donated profits. Context: FSOPOTAT documents the battle end-to-end; firm’s own dispute page survives in Wayback. Outcome (known): SEC findings vs Allied (BFP valuations); profits donated to charity.